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by Jan S. Raymond (Author)
This investigation of curious correlations explores the implications of the fact the two worst economic collapses in the last 100 years, the Great Depression and the Great Recession occurred at the end of a decade of Republican domination of all elective branches of government.- House, Senate and Presidency. Republicans pursued similar policies in both decades - tax cuts, regulatory cuts and reducing the size of Government. At no other time in the last 100 years did Republicans enjoy such total control for an extended period of time. Polls say that voters generally consider Republicans to be better at managing the economy. How can it be that the party that is perceived to be better at managing the economy controlled government policy in the decade leading up to the two worst economic collapses of the last 100 years.? Is it just bad luck? Or bad policy? The book examines whether data justifies voter belief in Republican managerial skills. It begins by developing historical context - summarizing the philosophical differences between Republicans and Democrats regarding how they view market based economics, the appropriate size of government, taxation to support government, and regulating individual behavior. Next it identifies who controlled each branch of Congress and which party controlled the Presidency for each of the 50 two-year congressional sessions between 1919 and 2018. The data shows that Republicans have dominated government policy for about 51 of the 100 years between 1919 and 2018 while Democratic policies dominated government for 49 years. After reviewing how we pay for the Federal government it becomes obvious the most prominent difference between the parties is that when Republicans controlled policy the tax rate on the top end of the income of the wealthiest taxpayers is below 40% while when Democrats controlled policy the tax rate on the top end of the wealthiest taxpayers income averaged roughly 85%. Next it compares GDP figures for each year between 1919 and 2018 and the data shows in the 49 years when Democratic policy dominated the country grew an average of 2.77% per year, while in the 51 years when Republican policy dominated GDP grew at an average of less than 1% per year. During the years Republican policy dominated the National debt rose by over 50%. During the years Democratic policy dominated the National debt rose only 5%. When Republican policy dominates the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, when Democratic policy dominated the rich still get richer but everyone else did much better. Looking at indirect economic consequences when Republican policy dominated our healthcare system got more expensive and inefficient, compared to when Democratic policy dominated. During the years Republican policy dominated the housing market was more volatile, home ownership shrank and more people lost their homes to foreclosure. During the years Democratic policy dominated the housing market was stable, home ownership grew and foreclosures were rare. During the years of Republican domination higher education became less available for those without well off parents, during periods of Democratic domination higher education became more widely available across all income brackets. Finally we look at the stock market - surely the stock market does better when Republicans control? But in fact the market generally does considerably better under periods of Democratic policy control than during periods of Republican policy control. Looking at the vocations of Presidents in the last 100 years the data shows the 5 Presidents that came out of a business background were all Republican and economic performance during all their administrations ranged from mediocre to calamitous. The book concludes with a summary and some speculation on why these often counter-intuitive correlations exist.
