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by Kevin N. McCauley (Author)
Russia, under both the Soviets and Vladimir Putin, is in a struggle with Western civilization, and has conducted influence campaigns to weaken and undermine the West from within. This study of influence campaigns waged against the West by the Soviet Union and now by Russia under President Vladimir Putin is intended to present a detailed overview and analysis of the various influence campaigns. Methods and means employed by the Soviet Union included active measures, disinformation, propaganda, controlled international front groups, agents of influence, forgeries, and reflexive control. Campaign themes are examined, and two key campaigns against NATO deployment of the neutron bomb and intermediate-range nuclear force are analyzed as case studies of a successful and failed campaign. The influence campaigns waged by President Putin against the West combine time tested methods with new information age techniques not available during the Soviet era including internet trolls, social media, information warfare, and cyber operations. Both similarities and differences exist in the execution and objectives of influence campaigns conducted by the Soviet Union and Putin's Russia. While the ideologies differ, both Soviet Communist ideology as well as the new Russian nationalist ideology under President Putin contend that Russia is engaged in a long-term struggle with the West that continues during peace and conflict, and will likely end violently. President Putin's Russia is now employing asymmetrical warfare against former Soviet republics to intimidate as well as expand Russian influence and borders in order to create a Russian World. This so-called new generation or hybrid warfare, essentially a Russian version of a "color revolution," incorporates aspects of influence campaigns combined with the covert deployment of special forces to mobilize local ethnic Russian populations combined with cyber operations to disrupt an opponent, and prepare the battle and information space for possible military operations. Influence campaigns in the Soviet era and under President Putin represent an indirect, low risk approach to undermine and weaken an opponent from within in order to promote political objectives, and alter the correlation of power in Moscow's favor in order to win the clash of civilizations with the West. The West needs to develop a coordinated response to the information assault by the Kremlin. First and foremost, the West needs to recognize that they are engaged in a struggle with President Putin's Russia. An effort similar to that developed to identify, analyze and publicize Soviet active measures and disinformation campaigns needs to be established. Countering the Kremlin's influence campaigns is important, however, the West critically needs to conduct proactive, offensive influence campaigns against Russian efforts. A three tier Western influence campaign is required. Information campaigns need to counter Russian influence efforts in the West and actively promote Western policies to public audiences. Next, a strategic communications campaign is required for audiences in the former Soviet republics, in particular Russian speaking populations. These countries are critical as they are already under assault by the Kremlin's influence campaigns, and are potentially the next target of Moscow's asymmetrical new generation warfare. The final audience, the Russian public, represents the hardest target, but also the most critical in countering the new Russian World ideology. Detailed target audience analysis is required for this effort to identify key groups and developed highly specialized and effective messaging. While difficult, analysis to anticipate future Russian influence campaigns and actions is required to more effectively counter the Kremlin's strategy. NATO and friendly states must centralize and pool scarce resources to counter the Kremlin's actions and communicate a Western message to key target audiences.
Author Biography
Kevin McCauley served over 30 years in the U.S. Government as a Senior Intelligence Officer for the former Soviet Union, Russia, China and Taiwan. Mr. McCauley headed a special analytic group during Operation DESERT SHIELD/DESERT STORM providing intelligence support on the Iraqi military to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and U.S. Army Central Command (ARCENT). Mr. McCauley produced numerous assessments supporting national decision makers and combatant commands during his career. He served on advisory boards and working groups supporting the U.S. Intelligence Community, National Intelligence Council (NIC), and U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM). Mr. McCauley has traveled extensively throughout Europe and the Asia-Pacific region for the government, and worked with numerous foreign militaries. Mr. McCauley currently speaks at conferences and writes primarily on Chinese and Taiwan defense and security affairs, including articles for the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief and the Indian Military Review.
